A significant study published by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), titled “Forward and Seaward: Archipelagic Defence as a Military Strategy for the Philippines,” reveals that a serious transformation has begun in the Philippines’ defense strategy.
The Comprehensive Archipelagic Defense Concept (CADC), announced by the administration of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., fundamentally changes the country’s military planning. Instead of previous fragmented modernization efforts, CADC signals a transition to an integrated structure that centers on geographical advantage, long-range firepower, and the distribution of bases. This shift in strategic vision aims to enhance the Philippines’ ability to protect its surrounding maritime areas and to reshape regional security dynamics.
Rising Pressure from China and the “Counter-A2/AD” Potential of CADC
According to the IISS study, growing military and gray-zone pressure from China is pushing Manila to accelerate military deployments, especially in strategic areas near the Taiwan Strait.
Beijing’s interpretation of CADC as a “counter-A2/AD” move developed against its own Anti-Access/Area Denial (A2/AD) structure is assessed as a critical development with the potential to increase tensions in the region. This situation indicates that the struggle for power balance in the South China Sea has entered a new phase and may encourage security dilemma dynamics.
Implementation Challenges of CADC and Allied Integration
The report emphasizes that implementing CADC will not be limited to acquiring new weapon systems; it also requires a multidimensional approach involving foreign policy, military integration with allies, rewriting operational concepts, and redeploying forces.
However, there are serious obstacles that must be overcome in its implementation:
- Inter-Service Rivalry: Competition among different service commands that hinders cooperation.
- Public Support: China’s attempts to weaken public backing for the strategy.
IISS notes that Manila must incorporate foreign military partnerships more explicitly into CADC and develop clearer and more transparent policies regarding base access and weapons deployments. Otherwise, it warns that military modernization will not go beyond being a “list update” that serves no strategic purpose
The Need for Deterrence and Strategic Clarity
IISS analysis shows that it remains unproven how effectively CADC can provide deterrence against China’s gray-zone tactics. It is unclear whether the concept can turn strategic-level deterrence efforts into improvements at the tactical and operational levels.
It is critically important for the Philippines to take the following steps in future iterations of the concept:
- Define a Theory of Victory: Clarify which strategic objectives are intended to be achieved.
- Focused Planning: Present planning that focuses not only on acquiring asymmetric systems but also on achieving specific strategic goals.
- Strategic Communication: Establish a strong strategic communication plan capable of persuading more neutral neighbors in the region.
Source: C4Defence / IISS
