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Home Articles Prof. Dr. Mesut Hakkı Caşın

The New Commercial and Military Roadmap in U.S. President Trump’s Asia Visit: Achievements and Uncertainties

Prof. Dr. Mesut Hakkı Caşın by Prof. Dr. Mesut Hakkı Caşın
28 September 2025
in Prof. Dr. Mesut Hakkı Caşın
A A

U.S. President Donald Trump, who carried out his longest overseas trip since taking office in January, oversaw a ceasefire agreement in the first leg of his Asia tour between Thailand and Cambodia due to their border dispute. 1Encouraged by Sanae Takaichi’s determination to accelerate Japan’s largest military buildup since World War II, Trump proceeded to Japan after stopping in Malaysia for the ASEAN Summit.2

The two leaders signed, in addition to a “new golden age” agreement reaffirming previous trade accords, another agreement aimed at increasing the supply and production of rare earth elements. 3 Trump’s visit is an important test for Takaichi, who became Japan’s leader last week. The U.S., while having severely hit Japan’s industry with the tariffs it recently imposed, is simultaneously demanding that Japan shoulder a larger share of its own defense burden.

Japan’s new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi promised at the beginning of Donald Trump’s visit to achieve a “Golden Age” in U.S.–Japan relations and to “fundamentally strengthen” her country’s defense posture. Japan is known to be rich in rare earth elements; however, as most of these resources are located underwater, the extraction and processing processes have been difficult.

In his speech, Trump announced that he had approved the first batch of missiles to be delivered for Japan’s Self-Defense Forces’ F-35 fighter jets, with delivery to take place this week. Trump also said he had heard that Japanese automaker Toyota would make major investments in the United States, adding that Takaichi would be “one of the best prime ministers.”4

Takaichi pledged to increase Japan’s defense spending to 2% of GDP and to strengthen what she called “the world’s greatest alliance” — the U.S.-Japan relationship. Praising Japan’s first female prime minister, Trump said that the two leaders had signed agreements on trade and critical minerals, and declared that the U.S. and Japan were “allies at the strongest level.” Before their bilateral meeting, he stated, “I think, more than ever, we are going to do tremendous trade together.” Trump also expressed his appreciation for Japan’s efforts to enhance its military capacity and to purchase more U.S. defense equipment. “If there’s any favor you need, anything I can do to help Japan, we’ll be there,” he asserted.5

U.S. President Donald Trump addressed troops aboard the USS George Washington aircraft carrier stationed in Japan. “Together with our incredible Japanese allies and allies all around the world, we are strong and proud,” he said. Telling the cheering soldiers that he would not be “politically correct,” Trump declared, “If we are at war, we will win the war.”6

The U.S. and Japan signed a memorandum of understanding in Tokyo to cooperate in shipbuilding.7 Trump stated, “The valued alliance between the United States and Japan is one of the most remarkable relationships in the entire world.”

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi responded: “I would like to once again emphasize my unwavering determination here. Japan is committed to fundamentally strengthening its defense capabilities and is ready to contribute more proactively to the peace and stability of the region. Through these efforts, together with President Trump, I am determined to further advance the Japan-U.S. Alliance, which has become the greatest alliance in the world,” she said.8

A conservative admirer of Margaret Thatcher, Takaichi supports a stronger Japanese military. Meanwhile, the U.S. Secretary of Defense warned of the “serious” threat posed by China to regional security. 9U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stated, “The threats we face are real and urgent. 9 China’s unprecedented military buildup and aggressive military actions are evident. That’s why President Trump’s ‘peace through strength’ agenda is so important.”10

As is known, the United States and Japan have been security allies since 1951. America has provided Japan with a nuclear umbrella, protecting it against Russia, China, and now North Korea. Japan, in return, has provided forward bases for U.S. military forces in Asia. When asked whether they would prefer the world to be led by the U.S. or China, 81% of Japanese respondents chose the U.S.11

Hegseth and Koizumi held a one-hour U.S.-Japan Defense Ministers’ Meeting. According to the Japanese Ministry of Defense’s statement on the meeting, the two defense ministers exchanged views on the security situation in the Indo-Pacific and agreed to support various initiatives to further strengthen the deterrence and response capabilities of the U.S.-Japan Alliance.

Both leaders welcomed the strengthening of U.S.-Japan Forces and progress in establishing Japan’s Joint Operations Command (JJOC). They also confirmed that one of the top priorities of the U.S.-Japan Alliance is expanding the two countries’ joint presence in Japan’s southwestern region, including enhancing more advanced and realistic bilateral training throughout Japan.12

Following these developments, the visit to South Korea constituted the third leg of Trump’s Asia tour. As explained above, Trump had previously been welcomed with praise and gifts at the regional summit in Malaysia, and in Japan, he was greeted by the new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi with words about a “golden era” in bilateral relations. The U.S. President made the final stop of his five-day Asia trip in Seoul, where he held discussions with South Korean President Lee Jae Myung on trade and security issues. After the talks between the U.S. and South Korean leaders, it was reported that a broad trade agreement had been reached between the two countries.13

Trump said, “The Republic of Korea is a valued friend and close ally of America, and as we have seen in this beautiful city, it is also one of the most remarkable countries in the world.”14 Lee presented Trump with a golden crown and South Korea’s highest decoration, the “Order of the Mugunghwa.” Lee also pledged to increase defense spending to address Trump’s concerns that U.S. allies were not meeting their military responsibilities. Additionally, he requested that the U.S. allow South Korea to reprocess nuclear fuel to power submarines capable of monitoring North Korean and Chinese vessels for longer periods. In return, Trump promised to help South Korea “resolve” its issues with its nuclear-armed northern neighbor.

During high-level trade talks, which included ceremonies where President Donald Trump received the gold medal and crown, the details of a $350 billion (300 billion euros) investment into the U.S. economy were discussed. 15After his meeting with Lee, Trump stated, “We have largely completed our agreement.”

In addition to trade disagreements, other tensions arose this year between Washington and Seoul. In September, during a U.S. immigration raid at a Hyundai plant in Georgia, over 300 South Koreans were detained, which caused anger and feelings of betrayal.16 Lee’s chief of staff, Kim Yong-beom, said that the two sides had agreed on the details of the trade deal as part of the overall $350 billion investment plan, including $200 billion in cash investments limited to $20 billion annually. He added that the remaining portion would come from shipbuilding cooperation. Automotive tariffs would also be reduced from 25% to 15%. Under the agreement reached in July, South Korea faces a general 15% tariff on exports.17

Meanwhile, President Trump lamented not being able to meet North Korean leader Kim, while promising to end decades of hostility between the two Koreas. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un stated on September 22 that Pyongyang would not seek reunification with South Korea because the two countries had become “completely incompatible.” According to Kim, Pyongyang will reinforce at the legislative level the judgment that North and South are “two separate states that cannot unify.”18

In response, Trump indicated that the U.S. would share sensitive nuclear submarine propulsion technologies with South Korea. Regarding the matter, Trump said, “South Korea will build its nuclear-powered submarine right here, at our former friend the United States, at the Philadelphia Shipyards. The shipbuilding industry in our country will soon see a GREAT RETURN.” The U.S.-U.K. partnership, under the AUKUS agreement, has seen nuclear propulsion technology used by Australia attract great attention and be closely guarded. 19 Trump’s decision to allow South Korea to build nuclear-powered submarines following trade talks with his counterpart Lee is extremely significant in terms of military power balances. Indeed, this dramatic move will allow Seoul to join the small club of countries that own such vessels, including the U.S., China, Russia, the U.K., France, and India.

The longstanding agreement limits Seoul from enriching uranium above 20% and prohibits the reprocessing of spent nuclear fuel without U.S. approval.

According to the AUKUS Agreement, the U.S.-British submarine defense plan. [20]

Lee stated that revising these restrictions would provide South Korea with “fuel supply for nuclear-powered submarines.” Most importantly, he emphasized that his government is seeking nuclear fuel rather than weapons. “If fuel supply is allowed, we can build several submarines equipped with conventional weapons using our own technology to defend the waters around the Korean Peninsula, which could ultimately lighten the burden on U.S. forces,” he said. Lee noted that Seoul’s current diesel-powered submarine fleet cannot track North Korean or Chinese submarines due to its limited underwater navigation capabilities. U.S. President Donald Trump, during his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea, said, “We have already agreed on many issues; now we will reach consensus on a few more. President Xi is the leader of a great country, and I believe we will have a great relationship for many years.” Xi, in turn, stated that the economic and trade delegations of the two countries had reached mutual agreement on key issues, adding, “This has laid the necessary groundwork for today’s meeting.”21

Asia-Pacific balance of nuclear submarines.22

Xi emphasized that, due to the differing national interests of the U.S. and China, it is natural not to agree on every issue: “It is natural for there to be disagreements from time to time between the world’s two largest economies. In the face of winds, waves, and challenges, you and I must stay on the right course at the helm of China-U.S. relations and ensure that this great ship proceeds steadily.”23 The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, signaling a positive tone ahead of the talks, stated that the meeting between the two leaders would “bring new momentum to the development of U.S.-China relations” and that Beijing is ready to work together for “positive outcomes.” 24 In this context, while the U.S. appeared willing to pursue any trade deal in which Trump could declare victory, China focused more on building mutual trust, managing chronic disputes, and stabilizing trade relations. Trump said that, following China’s announcement that it would ban exports of products that might have dual-use potential for foreign militaries or certain semiconductor sectors, a one-year agreement had been reached to supply rare earth elements.

However, Trump noted that Xi had stated, “they will maintain the flow of these materials.” Trump also said, “All rare earth elements are settled. That obstacle is now removed; there is no longer any barrier regarding rare earth elements.” Trump added that U.S. tariffs on China would be reduced from 57% to 47%.

Trump further noted that the war in Ukraine, which began with Russia’s 2022 invasion, “came up,” and stated that the U.S. and China would work together to prevent the killing of people.25

A weekend meeting between U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, concluded with optimism that both sides could agree on a framework for the future course of Trump and Xi’s relationship.26


References

[1] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/oct/27/japans-new-pm-will-hope-the-abe-effect-endears-trump-to-her-at-crucial-talks

[2] https://asia.nikkei.com/politics/international-relations/trump-in-japan-how-the-us-president-s-stay-unfolded

[3] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/oct/28/donald-trump-sanae-takaichi-japan-prime-minister-rare-earths-agreement

[4] https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/dunya/trump-ve-japonya-basbakani-takaici-kritik-mineraller-alaninda-isbirligini-artirma-konusunda-anlasti/3728406

[5] https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/trump-administration/live-blog/trump-administration-live-updates-trump-heads-japan-second-stop-asia-rcna239772

[6] https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c4gzdrd19n5t

[7] https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/10/27/us/trump-asia-news

[8] https://news.usni.org/2025/10/29/trump-hegseth-affirm-alliance-with-japanese-counterparts-during-asia-tour

[9] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/oct/28/donald-trump-sanae-takaichi-japan-prime-minister-rare-earths-agreement

[10] https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/trump-japan-korea-trip-government-shutdown-10-28-25

[11] https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2018/11/12/views-of-the-u-s-and-president-trump/pg_2018-11-12_japanese-public-opinion_5-08/

[12] https://news.usni.org/2025/10/29/trump-hegseth-affirm-alliance-with-japanese-counterparts-during-asia-tour

[13] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cly4jz9zr50o

[14] https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-japan-2nd-stop-asia-tour-high-stakes/story?id=126904467

[15] https://www.euronews.com/2025/10/29/trump-begins-final-leg-of-asian-tour-in-south-korea-as-pyongyang-tests-missiles

[16] https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/trump-scores-golden-gifts-as-united-states-and-seoul-advance-trade-talks

[17] https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/10/29/trump-apec-south-korea/

[18] https://iz.ru/en/node/1981037

[19] https://breakingdefense.com/2025/10/trump-south-korea-nuclear-submarine-philadelphia/?utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz–I4z6OWXFZwbWjE0ySpUEk6uvEWUjhCntztcyES-R_zKSh7Uj7BfvrF4ZP-9Jh7WhPLKGpMxCfHzeaOvISeyq7up1sQ_zrEszLYwVxUutEPONnyjg&_hsmi=387559641&utm_content=387559641&utm_source=hs_email

[20] https://fmes-france.org/the-aukus-security-pact-aligning-australias-strategy-with-americas-geopolitical-vision/

[21] https://www.hurriyet.com.tr/video/abd-baskani-trump-cin-devlet-baskani-xi-ile-guney-korede-bir-araya-geldi-43001609

[22] https://www.statista.com/chart/29489/number-of-nuclear-powered-submarines-worldwide/?srsltid=AfmBOoqTV0nETu7A0erFSW92xAQJkwx0jApYYtQI57KB6twLdMiTyerThttps://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_departments/Parliamentary_Library/Research/Research_Papers/2024-25/The_deterrence_advantage_of_nuclear_powered_submarines.

[23] https://www.milliyet.com.tr/dunya/son-dakika-abd-baskani-trump-ile-cin-devlet-baskani-si-bir-araya-geldi-pek-cok-konuda-anlastik-7473696

[24] https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trump-heads-south-korea-face-trade-talks-north-korean-missiles-2025-10-28/

[25] https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2025/oct/30/donald-trump-xi-jinping-meeting-live-updates

[26] https://edition.cnn.com/2025/10/29/asia/us-china-trump-xi-meet-south-korea-intl-hnk

Prof. Dr. Mesut Hakkı Caşın

Prof. Dr. Mesut Hakkı Caşın

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